In the first half of March, the annual congress of the National People's Congress (NPC) will set out the key priorities for 2021. Of course, these do not differ much from the goals set by the general 5-year plan, they simply act as an intermediate evaluation of the actions in order not to deviate from the goal that has been set.
Having left the pandemic behind, China will set goals that will help close the economic gap created by the pandemic and also boost its growth rate.
In 2020, due to circumstances, China did not give estimates for growth and might not do so for 2021 either. However, Bloomberg estimates that China's GDP for 2021 will increase by 8.2% compared to 2.3% in 2020.
China's central bank is expected to remain supportive in this effort, taking all measures to support the economy, keeping interest rates low and, depending on circumstances, adopting other measures of even more loose monetary policy.
As far as fiscal policy is considered, Government is estimated to maintain in full force all measures taken in 2020 as it appreciates that it is still too early for any change of stance. Consumption and private investment remain highly vulnerable and therefore any measures deemed absolutely necessary.
Export "bomb" at the beginning of 2021
In the first months of 2021, China is experiencing rapidly increasing growth rates with the medical and teleworking equipment sectors taking the lead. For February, the increase in exports compared to the same period last year is expected to increase by 40%, in dollar terms.
In recent weeks, China has come under pressure as rising US treasuries yields have acted as a deterrent to emerging markets and high-risk investment in general. However, scrutinizing the latest developments we do not see any long-term disturbance, but a normal development of things, as since March 2020, there has been a particularly intense rally in stocks. China's main uptrend remains upward and with prospects about the future.