Bond markets are always more indicative of the liquidity in the markets but also of revealing the investment sentiment before the purchase of stocks.

This week, the spread of high-yield bonds was at its highest level since last March, followed by the VIX volatility index.

It is a fact that the probable rise in interest rates as well as the tapering by the Fed, have had a negative effect on the yield of high yield bonds, but in any case we cannot ignore that to some extent, the upward movement is normal as profits of this category of bonds are significant and even the performance of junk bonds in some cases was found at the same levels as investment grade corporate bonds. So to some extent, there is also the element of exaggeration due to the demand for high returns.

As can be seen in the chart below, the rise in spreads has not been followed by a correspondingly big rise in the VIX Index, which remains below 20 although it has tried several times in recent days to close above this level. Even if it does, it means nothing, except maybe in the short term.

If the S&P 500 manages not to move downwards (or even slightly downwards), then a possible peak of the spread rise could mean the return of buying interest that will lead to the famous Santa rally.

Turkish Lira: Endless Fall - The battle with the markets is intensifying

With the drop against the euro at 59% since the beginning of the year and with inflation at 20% and steadily rising as shortages are dramatic, Turkey is mired in chaos as the management of economic and monetary policy is wrong. With interest rates down 4% since September, hedge funds have found the breeding ground to fuel bets against the Turkish lira, as the cost of short positions is now even lower. In addition, high inflation, combined with other macro in Turkey and low interest rates, reproduces the "Short" alert on macroeconomic models, resulting in increased sales.