2020 will go down in history for being such a remarkable year. In fact, though, many sectors of S&P 500, recorded significant profits until the end of the year, while others relatively lagged behind and could hide investment opportunities.
Only 40-45% of the damage done form the shock that both the pandemic and the lockdowns provoked, seems to have fully recovered. Within 2021, a very large percentage of what is left will be covered and the support role of both the Government and the Fed will be important.
According to our estimates, 2020 was the beginning of a new long cycle for the markets and this statistically leads to very good returns for the coming years. Already some of the market movements such as the over-performance of cyclical stocks and the over-performance of small-cap stocks, indicate that the economy is going through its first phase of growth.
Given the changing political scene in America and America's probable more moderate stance towards other countries, especially emerging ones, there is an increased likelihood of over-performing in emerging markets, which is even more reinforced by dollar's prolonged weakness.
Vaccinations continue and there are expected better months from the second half of 2021. The return to normal daily economic and social life will allow the economy to grow at a stronger and more stable pace.
We estimate that 2021 will be another positive year for markets. By no means do we want to claim that all obstacles of previous year have been eliminated, but we definitely rule out the possibility that volatility will even try to reach 2020 levels. We believe that Americans have large liquidity reserves due to government’s support packages and as real interest rates remain zero or negative, any "setback" in the market will find support not only from big wallets but also from small wallets.
In addition, a huge capital rotation towards investments with "green" environmental footprint is still in progress. These inflows are huge and create themselves a positive investment momentum for the entire market.