The long- lasting weakening of the dollar was an important parameter that allowed the commodities, in particular, to rise sharply in recent months. However, the approach of critical levels for the dollar, combined with the continuing increase of short positions, led to an upward reaction with the exchange rate maintaining the level of 90 and now showing particular momentum to approach the level of 93. If the momentum persists until the closing of Friday, the dollar will have recorded the highest weekly gains since last September.
The rise of the dollar has already halted the momentum of the S&P 500, as well as commodities and gold. For the time being, only oil seems to be resisting the rise of the dollar, although these two assets remain very positively correlated.
As the deficits observed during the massive restart of the economy will gradually disappear and also as the upward momentum of growth will be significantly reduced, copper and oil are likely to tumble to lower levels. As commodities for a rapidly growing economy, their correlation is very positive and therefore the graph below is a potential omen for lower oil prices.